Surf Forecasting : Art?

Let me begin by saying, the best surf forecasting is done by people with local knowledge. The person who knows how to read charts and forecast, but also understands their local break will have the best forecasting ability. The big surf forecasting sites do a really outstanding job at forecasting, but without local knowledge, their forecasts are not always accurate.

The North East Pacific or as I like to call it, California, forecast is a fairly easy one. Systems moving toward the coast push swells from several thousands of miles away onto the shores of California. The systems usually follow the same direction: west to east and making west cost surf predictions are far easier than those for the North West Atlantic, where conditions are more volatile and less predictable. Forecasting for California can be done a week in advance and are often very accurate. It amazed me how many non surfers knew about waves coming next week, because they "saw it on the news". Those California guys sure have it good.

The North West Atlantic, otherwise known as the US East Coast, is not so easy to predict. Generally, storms are moving from the west to east, which means the East Coast gets a swell from a storm moving away, rather than approaching the coast. While a swell on the West Coast may be coming from many thousands of miles away, the east coast rarely sees swell from distances over a thousand miles, if we're lucky. And once a system moves offshore, they usually move very rapidly north and east pushing swells into Europe and Africa. Where a front passes on the east coast makes a big difference in surf forecasting. A low moving off shore even a hundred miles north or south of where it was predicted, can make a big difference on what parts of the coast will see waves. During the winter, low pressures seem to be more predictable and therefore, winter surf forecasting, for the east coast, is usually much more reliable.

Surf forecasting tools are everywhere to be found, but I've found the most reliable and available sources to be the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). Both of these sites are invaluable when it comes to current ocean conditions and forecasting. With these two sources, you have access to 90% of all the surf forecasting information you will probably ever need.

But how do you forecast? Well, the easiest way is to keep a journal. Check out the predicted swells for you are on the FNMOC site, the predicted winds from NDBC and compare those results to what the actual waves were like at the beach that day. After some time, you will start to see patterns emerge from the predictions and how correct they are. This pattern is completely different for most areas on the east coast and can vary widely depending on location. Keep your eyes open and document your success and failures and soon you'll be the one your friends call to get the skinny on the next swell.